MLS week 19

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36-30-5 +3.66 (staked 250.83, +1.5%)

San Jose vs Vancouver
- a play against vancouver and not really on san jose who are pretty poor right now. vancouver just played their GOY on Monday night, losing only 2-1 to Man City. The starters played the first half and more than held their own against the EPL team, though the terrible field helped out a lot. I don't think fatigue will be a big issues with only 45' of play but that field certainly could take some energy away from Vancouver for the quick turnaround game 48 hours later. Vancouver will be without 2 starting defenders, DeMerit and Harvey, though Chiumiento, Hassli, and Jarju will all start for first time in club history. San Jose have overturned a bunch of their squad in past few weeks so a very different looking team than in June. They will be bolstered by Bobby Convey's return tonight and have actually played pretty well in past two weeks. They beat West Brom 2-1 in a friendly last week then drew Columbus 0-0 away on Saturday though had the best chances in match. They've failed to score though in nearly 300 minutes of league play but are on a 6 match home unbeaten streak. In all competitions Vancouver has lost 6 straight one-goal matches and have won just 2 of 20 in league play, none on the road where they're 0-3-8. Just a small bet though as vancouver were very impressive on Monday.

San Jose 2u -125


Colorado vs RBNY

- same as above...playing against New York who bookies are overrating every week. Another lackluster performance in LA over the weekend and now playing another 3 matches in a week, another 2 time zone trip, temps in 90's, and mile high altitude. Neither team really worth investing money in but just can't see how the Red Bulls can be favored on the road. Colorado, playing without a bunch of guys back in May, outplayed NY and drew 2-2 away. RBNY have two wins (over bottom dwellers NE and Tor) in 14 league matches and are winless in 8 on the road. They haven't scored in either of the last two games since trading away De Rosario who is they're only creative central midfielder and are now left with a huge gap in central MF using 4 defenders and 2 defensive midfielders so there's nobody to get the ball up to a fairly strong attack of Richards, Lindpere, Agudelo, and Henry. Colorado have to regroup after blowing 2 leads in Seattle and losing Casey for the season but they seem to get up for NY games (4-2-1 last 7 meetings) and it's the perfect time to play the Red Bulls, especially as a home underdog

Colorado pk 3u +100
 

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gonna rock a tiny draw system tonight risking just 1u overall. prices at pinn are DC +314, Dal +256, and LA +276. If 0 or 1 match draws will be a .99u loss and if 2-3 draw will be one in the win column and payout TBD

parlay DC X + DAL X .33u to win 4.53u
parlay DC X + LA X .33u to win 4.81u
parlay LA X + DAL X .33u to win 4.09u
 

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SJ 2-2 -2.50
Col 4-1 +3.00
draws 0-1 -.99

37-32-5 +3.17 (staked 257.32, +1.2%)
 

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RBNY vs Dallas
- on paper a very nice match but with high temps and two tired clubs this could be an ugly match. Books continue to overestimate the Red Bulls despite winning just 2 of 15 league matches while Dallas are one of the league's top teams. Big worry for Dallas is fatigue as they're in midst of a crazy stretch of matches ... we're talking 3 games in 8 days in 3 different countries stretch. RBNY got pasted in midweek and will surely put a great effort in tonight and if they ever get things clicking they're be tough to beat. RBNY without top player Tainio while Dallas missing 2 defenders. RBNY just not playing very well while Dallas have lost just 2 games in 3 months

Dallas pk 2u +200

Columbus vs Portland
- bad spot for Portland. They won in Chicago last saturday then flew back to Portland for midweek match vs West Brom and now fly another 3 time zones east to face a well rested and much better cbus team. Portland caught Chicago in bad position last week coming off midweek USOC win but now they're the prey as Cbus have dominated western teams at home. This year they beat Dallas 2-0, Van 2-1, RSL 2-1, Col 4-1 while drawing SJ, CUSA, and Seattle picking up 15 points in those 7 matches. Portland defense is a disgrace and they could be in for a 3-0 type game here

Columbus -.75 3u +100

RSL vs San Jose
- RSL now full focus on the league after getting dumped out of CCL and USOC. They've had 11 days to prepare for SJ and have everyone except javi healthy. SJ yet another draw midweek but at least they scored which is a rarity. They've failed to net in last 3 at home and havent won in Salt Lake since 2005. RSL are the league's best team with Javi and without him are still 2nd or 3rd while SJ just playing poorly right now, unable to defend 2 leads against a terrible Vancouver team that were playing 2nd match in 48 hours in midweek. I expect 1-0 or 2-0 home win and will bet on both side and total so need a shutout to cash both tickets, with small side parlay to Columbus.

Real Salt Lake 2u -160
RSL/SJ under 2.5 2u -117
RSL/Cbus parlay 1.5u to win 2.5u
 

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roll i was looking at the phili union vs real madrid game, saw a prop that stuck out to me. union over .5 goals in game +200. I know real madrid has been pasting the mls so far, but union only been held scoreless once at home all yr and top record in the east/ Think they can score?
 

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hmm, line seems about right maybe slight value on "union to score". la netted against RM and philly have a great record of scoring at home though failed to do so against United last year. at worst it's a nice little prop to make the game interesting

took a HT bet on united over 2.75 goals, currently 1-0 Chicago at HT ... I think United will get 2 themselves in 2H.
 

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outside of the mls look at tijuana pk tonight -105 in mexico

big investments, morelia way overrated, and tijuana's first match in top flight. awesome at home in ascenso without a loss in 25 games and defeated just once here in 36
 

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well, big odds move against me in columbus so even more value in my eyes. adding

Columbus 2u -122
 

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Dal 2-2 +0.00
Cbus 1-0 +3.50
RSL 4-0 -.34
Cbus/RSL +2.50

40-33-6 +8.83 (staked 271.80, +3.2%)
 

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